Mexico will be able to curb Covid-19 infections by October 2022, according to the evolutionary model developed by researchers from the Economics Department of the Iztapalapa Unit of the Autonomous Metropolitan University (UAM).
By then, Mexico will have accumulated three million 278 thousand 208 people infected with Covid-19, that is, more than one million 300 thousand more than we have today. And it is estimated that there will be 222 thousand 918 deaths, so "another 73 thousand 834 would still be missing, compared to the figure on January 23, 2021".
The largest number of deaths would occur largely because "the learning factor of the hospital system could not be realized, with the dismantling of the Seguro Popular, the creation of Insabi, and the lack of training of medical personnel. We do not believe it will be able to overcome the deficiencies it has had since the beginning of the epidemic," assures Roberto Gutiérrez Rodríguez, head of the UAM Iztapalapa Economics Department.
Zero contagion would be possible, largely with the arrival of vaccines, which represents an enormous challenge, given that a range of between 159 thousand to 318 thousand daily doses would have to be applied, that is, an average of 200 thousand that has not yet been achieved, he explained.
Reducing that proportion of deaths also requires investment in infrastructure and better training for doctors.
Once the new wave of infections caused by the year-end holidays has been assimilated, Gutiérrez Rodríguez and Marco Antonio Pérez Méndez, a researcher from the same department, agreed that it will not be until early April 2021 that the level of infections could begin to decrease, but the zero level will be reached a year and a half later: the second week of October 2022.
Regarding the deceased, specialists assure that lethality has decreased, "but it has done so at an astonishingly slow pace," going from 11 percent on April 30, 2020, to 8.5 percent currently, "by far the highest in the world."
They warned that this scenario could change if the presence of a fourth variant of the virus, called Mexican, which is already being studied in Guadalajara, is confirmed, or if the presence of the English, South African, or Brazilian variants increases.
In an interview with El Sol de México, Roberto Gutiérrez said that calculating mortality projections based on official data remains very complicated.
He indicated that since April, when they began to apply their model, the multiple rectifications by various researchers have been taken into consideration: from Raúl Rojas, from the Free University of Berlin, who applies an expansion factor of 2.5, to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), which lowers it to 1.56.
This is why the Gompertz model, used at the UAM, relies on official figures for the fatality rate, that is, "the accumulated coefficient of deaths/infections that has generally tended to decrease rapidly in other countries, but has done so at an astonishingly slow pace in ours."
Based on this scenario, Gutiérrez Rodríguez stated that Mexico's strategy for confronting the pandemic "demands a change of course more than ever."
He said he does not believe in herd immunity when 70 percent of the population has had contact with the virus, but so far clinical trials have shown a high possibility of reinfection.
He indicated that the availability of vaccines, whether or not they are two-dose vaccines, and the speed of their application in the population will impact the projection of the goal, which is why he assured that maintaining social distancing, wearing masks, and constant hand washing will be measures with which the population must contribute to reducing infections and the lethality of the virus.
The specialist explained that they are working on the possibility of presenting a model run for Mexico City, which contributes 26 percent of coronavirus cases, despite having only nine percent of the national population.
The researcher said that at this level of the pandemic, "the health of Mexico City must be of national interest."
Although he referred that the lethality is lower than in other entities, this is due to the fact that the largest hospital complex in the country is located here.
He added that if the cases of contagion are added to those generated in the conurbated municipalities of the state of Mexico, Puebla, Morelos, and Hidalgo, the metropolitan area contributes 45 percent of the total epidemic.
Referring to the economic reopening, he said that the level of contagion could worsen depending on the pace of reopening. "It could be irreversible due to pressure from business owners and providers of various services, both formal and informal, given the absence of support of all kinds."
Information from: https://www.diariodequeretaro.com.mx/mexico/sociedad/mexico-frenara-contagios-hasta-octubre-de-2022-uam-pandemia-coronavirus-covid-19-vacunas-6326321.html
